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LU9DCE > NEWS 24.06.26 07:10l 356 Lines 14138 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15822_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15-JUN
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 260615/1045Z 15822@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON JUN 15 08:02:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON JUN 15 08:02:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON JUN 15 08:02:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON JUN 15 08:02:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC JUN 15, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.
...DISCUSSION...
HIGHER LATITUDE BLOCKING APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH LITTLE
GENERAL CHANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS REGIME WILL MAINTAIN A
BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY
DEEPEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADIAN/U.S.
BORDER VICINITY, AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS IS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE
NOTABLE SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR, IN THE WAKE OF A
STALLING, WEAKENING PRECEDING COLD FRONT REACHING THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC/GULF COAST VICINITY. WITH HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT AND STRONGER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY LARGELY BECOMING CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES, THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SEASONABLY LOW TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
...SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS...
BENEATH A NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL REGIME, WHICH MAY MODESTLY
STRENGTHEN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH BY THIS
LATE AFTERNOON, MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTENING ON SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS INTO RATON MESA VICINITY. PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SUBTLE DIGGING SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION, IT
APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, INITIATING WITH
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, COULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A
SMALL ORGANIZING CLUSTER WHILE PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST
THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME POTENTIALLY CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS INTO MID
TO LATE EVENING.
..KERR/WEINMAN.. 06/15/2026
READ MORE
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SPC JUN 15, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN.
...MIDWEST...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF ENHANCED
MIDLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF WI/IL AND INTO
IN/LOWER MI/OH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLING ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUPPORT MLCAPE UP TO 1500
J/KG. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND A BAND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR PRECLUDING HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME IS THE EXPECTATION FOR MEAGER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA VICINITY...
SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN OK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS MIDLEVEL FLOW
INCREASES WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER,
GIVEN A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OR FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION OTHER THAN STRONG DAYTIME HEATING FOR AN INCREASING MOIST
AIRMASS, CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND BE MAINTAINED, A RISK FOR STRONG GUSTS AND
ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES, LOW
UNCONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES COULD BE NEEDED.
...EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
DEEP LAYER FLOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST INTO
MT/ND BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG HEATING AMID MEAGER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
..LEITMAN.. 06/15/2026
READ MORE
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SPC JUN 15, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
AN ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EPISODE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY.
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND, AS WELL
AS STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.
...MIDWEST...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW, ESPECIALLY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MS
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK
CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST 70-80 KT WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF
IA/MO/IL/IN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE, A 50+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SAME AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, JUST AHEAD OF AN
EAST/SOUTHEAST-ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE STRONG WIND
FIELDS, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS MN
AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WILL AID IN NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE (UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS).
COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND MODERATE TO
STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. OVERALL,
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS. WHILE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN, IT IS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME INITIAL
SUPERCELL RISK WILL UNFOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
(PARTICULARLY ACROSS MO/IL), WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE BOWING
MCSS DEVELOPING WITH TIME. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, AND PARTICULARLY SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS, AND
STRONG TORNADOES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE RISK. MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE MAY MOVE ACROSS IA/IL EARLY IN THE DAY. COUPLED WITH STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, MORNING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP
NEAR/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHEAST
IL AT MIDDAY COULD SUPPRESS NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.
LIKEWISE, THE SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF THE RISK AREA INTO PORTIONS OF
KS/OK MAY BE LIMITED BY CAPPING CONCERNS, AND WEAKER FORCING FOR
ASCENT. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE MODULATED BY THE STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT
OF MID/UPPER FLOW OVERNIGHT AND SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE RISK AREA MAY SHIFT SOME IN COMING DAYS AS
SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND OTHER MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME BETTER
RESOLVED.
..LEITMAN.. 06/15/2026
READ MORE
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SPC JUN 15, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAY 4/THURSDAY -- MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS
QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON THURSDAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL. EARLY DAY CONVECTION
AND CLOUD COVER MAY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH FROM RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS, SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF STRONG
FLOW ATOP A MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD OCCUR FROM SOUTHERN OHIO/EASTERN KY
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOME IN THE COMING DAYS AS
MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.
...DAYS 5-8/FRIDAY-MONDAY...
A SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES,
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH VICINITY ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK AS RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO TX AND THE GULF COAST.
ON SATURDAY, NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
IS EXPECTED BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. BY SUNDAY, AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST MAY EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS, RESULTING
IN SOME RETURN OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH
SPREAD AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE AND PREDICTABILITY IS
LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
BETWEEN A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST, A ROBUST MIDLEVEL SPEED
MAX WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, A RELATED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION.
ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH, AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING
WILL RESULT IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH 15-20 PERCENT RH
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN WY INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND
VICINITY. HERE, ENHANCED LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE PASSING SPEED MAX AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THESE DRY/BREEZY
CONDITIONS ATOP DRY/RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL YIELD ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, STRONG TERRAIN-DRIVEN
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH (LOCALLY GREATER IN GAP-FLOW AREAS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS) AND 10-15 PERCENT RH WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, FOUR
CORNERS, AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER, THESE CONDITIONS APPEAR TOO
LOCALIZED FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
..WEINMAN.. 06/15/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST, A
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 70-80-KT SPEED MAX WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY.
IN RESPONSE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN WHILE ADVANCING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ROBUST MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX, STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD A WARM/DRY AIR
MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WILL RESULT IN 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
AMID 15-20 PERCENT AFTERNOON RH. GIVEN INCREASINGLY DRY/RECEPTIVE
FUELS ACROSS THE REGION, ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IN PARTICULAR, LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE GAP-FLOW AREAS THROUGH THE CASCADES AND THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HOWEVER, THESE CONDITIONS APPEAR TOO LOCALIZED
FOR CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
...EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS...
DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAKER MIDLEVEL FLOW COMPARED TO AREAS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST, AT LEAST MODERATE MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF BREEZY/GUSTY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS COUPLED WITH SINGLE-DIGIT TO
LOWER-TEENS RH WILL YIELD BROAD ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL FAVOR STRONGER SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS (AROUND 20-25 MPH) OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN WY, WHERE LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS THROUGHOUT THE ELEVATED
AREA.
..WEINMAN.. 06/15/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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