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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.09.24 10:00l 200 Lines 7077 Bytes #299 (0) @ WW
BID : 7695_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17-SEP24
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<LU4ECL<ZL2BAU<N9PMO<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 240917/0730Z 7695@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673
WW 673 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 170005Z - 170500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT FROM 705 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
THIS EVENING NEAR AND NORTH OF A BOUNDARY, WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 105 MILES WEST OF
DEVILS LAKE ND TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WARROAD MN. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
23030.
...GUYER
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0673 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 673
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E N60 TO
60 ENE MOT TO 70 NE MOT.
..SPC..09/17/24
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 673
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC007-029-069-077-089-113-119-125-135-170440-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELTRAMI CLEARWATER KITTSON
LAKE OF THE WOODS MARSHALL PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU
NDC005-019-027-035-063-067-069-071-079-083-095-099-103-170440-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENSON CAVALIER EDDY
GRAND FORKS NELSON PEMBINA
PIERCE RAMSEY ROLETTE
SHERIDAN TOWNER WALSH
WELLS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
READ MORE
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE SEP 17 03:46:14 UTC 2024
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE SEP 17 03:46:14 UTC 2024.
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SPC SEP 17, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2024
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE IN PARTS OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA, WHERE THE RAP IS ANALYZING A DISTINCT VORTICITY MAX.
AT THE SURFACE, A LOW IS IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT FROM NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY, WHERE THE RAP HAS MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
RANGE. NEAR THIS CONVECTION, REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 35 KNOTS, WITH A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE SAME AREA HAVE
STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. ORGANIZED BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP DUE TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING, AS A STRONG TO SEVERE
LINE SEGMENT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. RAINBANDS EXTEND FROM NORTH OF THE CENTER
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE
LATEST RAP HAS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST, WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THE
MOOREHEAD CITY WSR-88D VWP HAS A GRADUALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE FROM
THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 4 KM, WITH 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY
AROUND 320 M2/S2. THIS SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR ROTATING STORMS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
BE MAXIMIZED WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE AND ARE CLOSE TO
THE COAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CAPE HATTERAS AREA BY LATE
EVENING.
...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, A MID-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM MUCH OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE RAP HAS A POCKET OF
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WITH ANOTHER IN EASTERN ARIZONA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THESE AREAS.
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
A MARGINAL SEVERE THIS EVENING, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL
AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..BROYLES.. 09/17/2024
READ MORE
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