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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.08.24 09:34l 480 Lines 13643 Bytes #269 (0) @ WW
BID : 6215_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 19-AUG24
Path: IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 240819/0730Z 6215@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638
WW 638 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA CW 182310Z - 190600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 638
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 710 PM
UNTIL 200 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY
SOME HAIL WILL CONTINUE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITHIN A HOT/MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PENSACOLA FL TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF VIDALIA GA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 634...WW 635...WW
636...WW 637...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW
CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
31025.
...GUYER
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637
WW 637 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 182030Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 637
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA. A FEW INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF FORT SMITH AR TO 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GREENVILLE MS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 634...WW 635...WW 636...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
30030.
...HART
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0638 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 638
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW GZH
TO 25 ENE GZH TO 15 SSE TOI TO 25 N DHN TO 30 ENE DHN TO 20 SW
ABY TO 20 E ABY TO 55 WSW VDI TO 20 WNW VDI TO 20 NE VDI TO 25
WNW SAV.
..WENDT..08/19/24
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...JAX...CHS...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 638
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC031-035-039-045-053-061-067-069-099-190240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON
DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON MONROE
FLC005-013-033-039-059-063-091-113-131-133-190240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA
GADSDEN HOLMES JACKSON
OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON
WASHINGTON
GAC001-003-005-007-017-019-027-069-071-075-087-099-109-131-155-
161-173-185-201-205-209-253-267-271-275-277-279-309-321-
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0637 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S RKR TO
45 SE FSM TO 25 NNE RUE TO 65 NE PBF TO 40 N GLH TO 20 ESE GWO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953
..WENDT..08/19/24
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-029-039-041-043-045-051-053-059-
069-079-085-095-097-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-149-
190240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS
DESHA DREW FAULKNER
GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING
JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE
MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA
PERRY PIKE POLK
POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT YELL
LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-190240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0636 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 636
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MEI
TO 50 W SEM TO 15 E SEM TO 25 NE TOI TO 45 NE DHN TO 15 NW ABY TO
40 NE ABY TO 35 SSE MCN TO 35 SE MCN TO 25 NNE VDI.
..WENDT..08/19/24
ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 636
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC005-011-047-085-091-101-109-190140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BULLOCK DALLAS
LOWNDES MARENGO MONTGOMERY
PIKE
GAC023-053-081-091-175-197-235-315-190140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLECKLEY CHATTAHOOCHEE CRISP
DODGE LAURENS MARION
PULASKI WILCOX
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 635 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0635 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 635
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WENDT..08/18/24
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...RAH...RNK...AKQ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 635
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC073-105-181-189-245-182240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA ELBERT LINCOLN
MCDUFFIE RICHMOND
NCC001-003-007-025-033-035-037-045-051-057-059-063-065-067-069-
071-077-081-083-085-093-097-101-105-109-119-123-125-127-131-135-
145-151-153-157-159-163-165-167-169-179-181-183-185-191-195-197-
182240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ANSON
CABARRUS CASWELL CATAWBA
CHATHAM CLEVELAND CUMBERLAND
DAVIDSON DAVIE DURHAM
EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN
GASTON GRANVILLE GUILFORD
HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE
IREDELL JOHNSTON LEE
LINCOLN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0634 STATUS UPDATES
240-
STATUS REPORT ON WW 634
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WENDT..08/18/24
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...BGM...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 634
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-005-182240-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX
DCC001-182240-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-
037-039-041-043-045-047-510-182240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL
CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK
READ MORE
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SPC MD 1954
MD 1954 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637...
VALID 190258Z - 190430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION, THOUGH BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED, WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE IN
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. A DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE EVIDENT ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED SOME INTENSITY DESPITE
MOVING INTO OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. THE OBSERVED LITTLE
ROCK 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED STABLE LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS, BUT STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AMPLE ELEVATED BUOYANCY. FARTHER SOUTH, WHEN
MODIFYING THE OBSERVED 00Z SHREVEPORT SOUNDING, MLCIN HAS BEEN
INCREASING WITH TIME. GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LINE AND THE
ELEVATED BUOYANCY IN THE REGION, A FEW DOWNDRAFTS MAY BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME LOW-LEVEL INHIBITION AND PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
TONIGHT. OVERALL CONVECTIVE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A NEW
WATCH INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA IS NOT LIKELY.
..WENDT.. 08/19/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 34189441 34339371 34629220 34549168 33359183 32349231
32279347 32899437 34189441
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 19, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2024
VALID 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO
MISSISSIPPI, THEN EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION. A COUPLE SEVERE WIND/HAIL PRODUCING STORMS MAY
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH A COUPLE OF STORMS
CROSSING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MEANDERS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC FROM THE EASTERN U.S. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS (SOME STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE)
CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE IN INTENSITY ALL ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF BOTH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE, FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST SUNSET, PROMOTING CONTINUED SEVERE
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE OUTLOOK WERE TO TRIM SEVERE PROBABILITIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DILUTED
BUOYANCY. OTHERWISE, CATEGORY 1/MARGINAL RISK PROBABILITIES, DRIVEN
BY WIND/HAIL, WERE ADDED TO PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL ND, WHERE A FEW
SOUTHWARD-SURGING SUPERCELLS MAY CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
A SEVERE THREAT BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING AND ASSOCIATED MLCINH HELP
WEAKEN THE STORMS.
..SQUITIERI.. 08/19/2024
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