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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.08.24 14:02l 254 Lines 7490 Bytes #267 (0) @ WW
BID : 6113_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17-AUG24
Path: IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<IR0AAB<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 240817/1201Z 6113@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 629
WW 629 SEVERE TSTM AR 170200Z - 170700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 629
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
900 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 900 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS -- WITH A HISTORY OF
SEVERE AS RECENTLY AS A 56-KT GUST AT NW AR REGIONAL (XNA) AT 141Z
-- IS EXPECTED TO POSE A CONTINUING SEVERE-WIND AND HAIL THREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MORE OF AR THIS EVENING. SOME EXPANSION OR SHIFT
IN MOTION TOWARD SOUTHWARD ALSO IS POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF FORT
SMITH AR TO 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF RUSSELLVILLE AR. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 628...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
32035.
...EDWARDS
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628
WW 628 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 162035Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...MULTIPLE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER THROUGH LATE EVENING,
IN A STORM ENVIRONMENT FAVORING ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS.
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
UP TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER, AS WELL AS SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
75 MPH.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST
OF ALVA OK TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MONETT MO. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 627...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
30025.
...THOMPSON
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 629 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0629 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0629 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0628 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 628
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE END TO
20 NE END TO 35 SSE ICT.
..SQUITIERI..08/17/24
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 628
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-087-143-170340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL MADISON
WASHINGTON
MOC009-119-145-170340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY MCDONALD NEWTON
OKC001-021-035-037-041-071-097-103-105-113-115-117-119-131-143-
145-147-170340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE KAY
READ MORE
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT AUG 17 03:46:22 UTC 2024
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT AUG 17 03:46:22 UTC 2024.
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SPC AUG 17, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2024
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
...01Z UPDATE...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY, EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST KS-NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST WITHIN MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG
THE BACK SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TROUGH. SYNOPTIC FRONT
THAT ADVANCED INTO THIS REGION ARCS ACROSS MO-SOUTHERN KS-NORTHERN
TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY IS SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
ROBUST CONVECTION, MOSTLY CONCENTRATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS/EXTREME
NORTHEAST OK ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A MOST BUOYANT AIRMASS.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100F SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. 00Z SOUNDING
FROM OUN EXHIBITS MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG WITH 30KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR. LATEST VWP DATA DEPICTS 1KM FLOW AROUND 15KT ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK, BUT MODELS SUGGEST LLJ WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS INTO NORTHEAST OK WHERE VALUES MAY EXCEED 30KT. THIS
WILL FAVOR A SOUTHEAST-MOVING COMPLEX OF STORMS INTO NORTHERN AR
LATER THIS EVENING. DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
..DARROW.. 08/17/2024
READ MORE
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