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LU9DCE > ALERT    04.10.24 08:30l 79 Lines 2994 Bytes #221 (0) @ WW
BID : 8531_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04-OCT24
Path: IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 241004/0730Z 8531@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQK6.0.24

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                       PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI OCT  4 01:31:01 UTC 2024

NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI OCT  4 01:31:01 UTC 2024.

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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI OCT  4 01:31:01 UTC 2024

NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI OCT  4 01:31:01 UTC 2024.

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SPC OCT 4, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
      
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2024

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS 
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
AN AREA OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT MAY POSE A RISK FOR
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA,
ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

...01Z UPDATE...
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, ONE NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.  THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURROUNDING CYCLONIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
CURRENTLY CURVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER VICINITY, WHERE IT IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD AN INITIALLY
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS REGIME WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, CONTRIBUTING  TO INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT. 
LOWER/MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS ALREADY INCREASING  ACROSS IOWA AND
SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST, IN
RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 05-07Z ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA, WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES A CORRIDOR OF MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ELEVATED MOISTURE
RETURN ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE MAY INCREASE IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ALONG THIS CORRIDOR, IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST
POTENTIAL CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHEAR.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY
INCLUDE SUFFICIENTLY COOL MID-LEVELS (AND STEEP LAPSE RATES) TO
SUPPORT A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (UP TO AROUND 1 INCH OR SO
IN DIAMETER) IN A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

..KERR.. 10/04/2024

READ MORE

      

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