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LU9DCE > ALERT 06.08.24 09:33l 554 Lines 14811 Bytes #255 (0) @ WW
BID : 5501_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 06-AUG24
Path: IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 240806/0730Z 5501@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601
WW 601 SEVERE TSTM IL IN WI 052250Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 601
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INDIANA
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 550 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL (1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN
DIAMETER), SEVERE GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. STRONG TO SEVERE
MULTICELLS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE INDIANA AND ILLINOIS BORDER THIS
EVENING. A LOCALIZED RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS. BY LATER THIS EVENING, OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE WATCH AND YIELD A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF ROCKFORD IL TO 85 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MARSEILLES IL. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 597...WW 598...WW
599...WW 600...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27020.
...SMITH
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 600
WW 600 TORNADO IA MN WI 052225Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN IOWA
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 525 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING WITH
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. A TORNADO RISK MAY ACCOMPANY ANY
ESTABLISHED AND MATURE SUPERCELL. THE RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL (1 TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER) AND SEVERE GUSTS (60-70 MPH) WILL
ALSO INCREASE THIS EVENING. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINEAR CLUSTER IS
FORECAST LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING TO
MAINLY A WIND RISK, WITH PERHAPS A LINGERING TORNADO THREAT.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SPENCER
IA TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DUBUQUE IA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 597...WW 598...WW 599...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 29030.
...SMITH
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 599
WW 599 TORNADO GA SC CW 051940Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 599
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM EDT MON AUG 5 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA GEORGIA
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 340 PM
UNTIL 100 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ASHORE AHEAD OF THE TS
DEBBY MIGHT COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH THE
EVENING.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SAVANNAH GA
TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SC. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 596...WW 597...WW 598...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 14035.
...HART
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0601 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 601
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..THORNTON..08/06/24
ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 601
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC015-085-177-060440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL JO DAVIESS STEPHENSON
WIC045-049-065-105-060440-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREEN IOWA LAFAYETTE
ROCK
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 600 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0600 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 600
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S MCW TO
40 NNE ALO TO 20 SW VOK.
..THORNTON..08/06/24
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 600
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC005-013-017-019-023-043-055-061-065-060440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BLACK HAWK BREMER
BUCHANAN BUTLER CLAYTON
DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE
MNC055-060440-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOUSTON
WIC023-043-103-123-060440-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD GRANT RICHLAND
VERNON
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 599 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0599 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 599
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..08/06/24
ATTN...WFO...CHS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 599
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC029-051-103-179-183-191-060240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRYAN CHATHAM EFFINGHAM
LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH
SCC013-015-019-029-035-049-053-060240-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON
COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON
JASPER
AMZ330-350-352-354-370-372-374-060240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHARLESTON HARBOR
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 598 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0598 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 598
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PSM
TO 25 ESE EEN TO 25 W EEN TO 40 ESE UCA.
..GOSS..08/05/24
ATTN...WFO...BOX...GYX...ALY...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 598
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MEC005-031-060040-
ME
. MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUMBERLAND YORK
NHC001-005-011-013-015-017-019-060040-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELKNAP CHESHIRE HILLSBOROUGH
MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD
SULLIVAN
NYC035-057-091-093-115-060040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FULTON MONTGOMERY SARATOGA
SCHENECTADY WASHINGTON
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 597 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0597 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 597
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CLE
TO 30 SW JHW TO 25 NW ELM TO 35 SE ROC TO 10 ENE ROC.
..GOSS..08/05/24
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 597
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
PAC023-033-035-047-081-083-105-113-117-123-060040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMERON CLEARFIELD CLINTON
ELK LYCOMING MCKEAN
POTTER SULLIVAN TIOGA
WARREN
LEZ020-060040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC MD 1835
MD 1835 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 599... FOR COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1835
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CDT MON AUG 05 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 599...
VALID 060335Z - 060500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 599 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...TORNADO RISK CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
DEBBY, AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM LINGERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
WITH TORNADO WATCH 599 SET TO EXPIRE AT 06/05Z, A NEW WW WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CELLULAR CONVECTION
WITHIN A PERSISTENT BAND SITUATED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
OF DEBBY'S CIRCULATION. STRONGER OFFSHORE CELLS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
COMPACT/OCCASIONALLY STRONG CIRCULATIONS, WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
REPORTED ONSHORE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS.
AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE, EXTENDING
BEYOND THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCH (599).
GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF A MOIST/LOW-CAPE ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (WEAKLY VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT,
INCREASING RAPIDLY TO 50 KT AT AROUND 800M AGL), WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT A CONTINUED TORNADO RISK LOCALLY, A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED, TO COVER THE ONGOING THREAT.
..GOSS.. 08/06/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...
LAT...LON 31418009 31948090 32358128 32688104 32938026 32947941
32207906 31418009
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 6, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT MON AUG 05 2024
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN VICINITY. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
...NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HAS LARGELY WANED THIS EVENING AS THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. AS
SUCH, SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED.
...UPPER MIDWEST VICINITY...
INITIAL SUPERCELL STORMS OVER SOUTHERN MN ARE CURRENTLY
TRANSITIONING TOWARD A MORE LINEAR/BOWING STORM MODE AN A MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS IA INTO NORTHERN IL. A 25-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
NOTED AROUND 850 MB ORIENT ORTHOGONAL TO THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE SCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO TONIGHT. A SHORT TERM
TORNADO RISK WILL PERSIST BEFORE A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE OF A
DAMAGING GUST RISK.
...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING.
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SPORADIC
SEVERE STORMS AMID MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER LAPSE
RATES. A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER, LONGER LIVED UPDRAFTS ALSO COULD
PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL.
...SOUTHEAST GA AND COASTAL SC...
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM
DEBBIE SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SEE MCD 1832 FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THIS CONTINUED RISK.
..LEITMAN.. 08/06/2024
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