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LU9DCE > ALERT 26.09.24 17:33l 374 Lines 11787 Bytes #213 (0) @ WW
BID : 8138_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 26-SEP24
Path: IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 240926/1631Z 8138@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 684
WW 684 TORNADO GA SC CW 261230Z - 270100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 684
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
830 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN GEORGIA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 830 AM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY
SUMMARY...A LONG-DURATION AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TORNADO THREAT
WILL EXIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE HELENE.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH GA TO 30
MILES NORTH OF COLUMBIA SC. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 683...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 16025.
...GUYER
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 683
WW 683 TORNADO FL CW 261040Z - 270000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 683
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA PENINSULA
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 640 AM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY
SUMMARY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE HELENE,
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF OCALA FL TO 55
MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FL. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 16050.
...GUYER
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 684 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0684 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0684 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 683 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0683 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 683
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..09/26/24
ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL...TBW...JAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 683
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071-
075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117-
119-127-261340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE
CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE
LEVY MANATEE MARION
MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS
POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA
SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA
AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-830-836-850-853-856-
261340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
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SPC MD 2111
MD 2111 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 683... FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 683...
VALID 261307Z - 261500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 683 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING, PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...HURRICANE HELENE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SEVERAL RAINBANDS, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ARE
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE LATEST RAP HAS A POCKET OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH
MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE MIAMI, FLORIDA 12Z SOUNDING, WHICH ALSO HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR IN
THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE, AND 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND
300 M2/S2. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES WITH SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER
RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE HELENE. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS HURRICANE HELENE MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
..BROYLES.. 09/26/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...
LAT...LON 27828021 28368038 28628057 28808105 28838160 28648211
28138236 27308239 26288209 25578157 25188105 25128074
25248039 25598009 26467994 27828021
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SPC MD 2110
MD 2110 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN
GEORGIA...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261136Z - 261330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE SEVERAL HOURS FROM FAR EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION...HURRICANE HELENE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, ONSHORE FLOW IS PRESENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE
ISOLATED STORMS HAVE BEEN GENERATING OVER THE LAST HOUR. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST, BUT ALSO HAS AN 850
MB SPEED MAX LOCATED OVER EASTERN GEORGIA WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 30
TO 35 KNOT RANGE. THIS IS REFLECTED ON THE CHARLESTON, SOUTH
CAROLINA WSR-88D VWP, WHICH HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KNOTS, AND 0-3
KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY OF NEAR 170 M2/S2. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..BROYLES/GUYER.. 09/26/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...
LAT...LON 32128025 31348099 31108137 31168179 31498203 32248236
33108239 33658218 33998190 34098139 33958065 33678006
33217979 32657982 32128025
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SPC SEP 26, 2024 1300 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1300Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2024
VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL
AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE HELENE. THE GREATEST THREAT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, THE
MIDLANDS AND LOW COUNTRY OF SOUTH CAROLINA, AND SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.
...FLORIDA/GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...
HURRICANE HELENE, CENTERED 300-350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA EARLY
THIS MORNING, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE
OVER THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS EVENING.
CONSULT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES FOR MORE
TRACK, INTENSITY, AND IMPACT DETAILS.
RELATED TO HELENE'S LARGE SIZE AND INCREASINGLY FAST FORWARD SPEED,
AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PARTS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA BY AFTERNOON, AND EVENTUALLY INTO PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (AND MOISTURE/BUOYANCY) IS ALREADY
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO RISK IN SOME AREAS REGIONALLY, REFERENCE 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM MIAMI AND ESPECIALLY TAMPA BAY. HOWEVER,
THIS TORNADO-SUPPORTIVE SCENARIO WILL DIURNALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD REGIONALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME QUITE LARGE, WITH 0-1 KM SRH
INCREASING INTO AT LEAST THE 250-500 M2/S2 RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPORT
TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST WITHIN HELENE'S RAIN BANDS. SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL REACH INTO PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TONIGHT.
..GUYER/BROYLES.. 09/26/2024
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SPC SEP 26, 2024 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2024
VALID 291200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE
REINFORCED THROUGH MIDWEEK BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH
DAY 6/TUE. HOWEVER STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO THE NORTH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE, LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNER, WHILE A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATE THROUGH MORE PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN THE VICINITY
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW DURING THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD.
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