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LU9DCE > ALERT 29.07.24 09:35l 150 Lines 5675 Bytes #247 (0) @ WW
BID : 5119_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 29-JUL24
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<DK0WUE<VK5RSV<K1AJD<VE3CGR<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 240729/0730Z 5119@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON JUL 29 03:46:02 UTC 2024
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON JUL 29 03:46:02 UTC 2024.
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SPC MD 1723
MD 1723 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0900 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR
NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 290200Z - 290400Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NEED FOR A
WATCH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 0150Z, THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
-- WHERE A LARGE COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED. THESE STORMS ARE BEGINNING
TO INTERCEPT A PLUME OF POST-FRONTAL/RECYCLED BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE (LOWER/MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS) NORTH OF A SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (SAMPLED
BY REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS) ABOVE THE DESTABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OR PERHAPS INTENSIFICATION OF THESE
STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AND, A LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH (AROUND 45 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR
PER THE KUDX VWP) WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION,
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND/OR LINE
SEGMENTS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL (SOME POSSIBLY VERY LARGE) AND SEVERE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED STORMS.
GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND GRADUALLY INCREASING NOCTURNAL
STABILITY CAST UNCERTAINTY ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT.
THEREFORE, CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
..WEINMAN/HART.. 07/29/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43230243 43430308 43630341 43840341 43980334 44150299
44220250 44270187 44270115 44069983 43629870 43139863
42879907 42890016 43230243
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 29, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2024
VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED BE THE MAIN THREATS.
...PARTS OF SD/NE/KS...
STORMS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED RATHER ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FROM PARTS OF SD INTO SOUTHWEST NE/NORTHWEST KS.
HOWEVER, A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, DESPITE
GRADUALLY INCREASING MLCINH. MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING, WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS.
IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN SD
COULD UNDERGO MODEST UPSCALE GROWTH AND PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT WITH A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND THREAT. HOWEVER, THIS
SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN, GIVEN INCREASING MLCINH AND THE
LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW (WITH THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL JET
DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST).
FARTHER SOUTH, SOME INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE REMAINS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NE INTO NORTHWEST KS THROUGH MID EVENING, BEFORE
MLCINH BECOMES INCREASINGLY PROHIBITIVE LATER TONIGHT. ANY STRONGER
CELLS/CLUSTERS IN THIS REGION WOULD POSE SOME RISK OF HAIL AND
STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS.
...IA/MO...
A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA HAS REMAINED SUBSEVERE THUS FAR TODAY, THOUGH SOME
THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS CLUSTER. SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH TIME TONIGHT, AS A LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES
FOCUSED INTO THE REGION. WHILE DEEP-LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST,
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LARGER MCS TO EVOLVE OUT OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION, WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IA,
NORTHEAST MO, AND WESTERN IL, WITH SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS.
...MN...
A FEW STRONGER STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF MN, WHERE
MODERATE BUOYANCY PERSISTS THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF AREAS ALREADY
INFLUENCED BY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. RATHER WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE CONVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENS LATER
TONIGHT.
..DEAN.. 07/29/2024
READ MORE
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