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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.07.25 09:46l 440 Lines 11145 Bytes #295 (0) @ WW
BID : 6397_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 08-JUL
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PI8ZTM<VE3CGR<VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 250708/0730Z 6397@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
JAVA SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (JSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495
WW 495 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 080205Z - 080900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
905 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN IOWA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 905 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE POSING A THREAT FOR
MAINLY SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60-75 MPH. OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL
UP TO 1-2 INCHES IN DIAMETER MAY ALSO OCCUR.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST
OF GRAND ISLAND NE TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DENISON IA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 492...WW 493...WW 494...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
32030.
...GLEASON
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494
WW 494 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 072030Z - 080300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW INTENSE/SUPERCELL STORMS POSSIBLE.
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF HALLOCK MN TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF FARGO ND. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 492...WW 493...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
28030.
...HART
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0495 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 495
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW OFK
TO 25 NNE LNK TO 10 NE OMA TO 35 ENE DNS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601
..THOMPSON..07/08/25
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...GID...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-027-029-071-129-137-145-155-165-080440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON CARROLL CASS
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY
NEC011-023-025-035-059-067-071-077-079-081-093-095-097-109-121-
125-129-131-141-143-151-153-155-159-163-169-175-183-185-
080440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUTLER CASS
CLAY FILLMORE GAGE
GARFIELD GREELEY HALL
HAMILTON HOWARD JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LANCASTER MERRICK
NANCE NUCKOLLS OTOE
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0494 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 494
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FAR TO
20 SE GFK TO 35 SE TVF.
WW 494 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 080300Z.
..THOMPSON..07/08/25
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 494
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-027-087-107-119-080300-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER CLAY MAHNOMEN
NORMAN POLK
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0493 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE VTN TO
30 S YKN TO 20 NW SPW.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599
..WEINMAN..07/08/25
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...ABR...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC035-133-141-143-149-193-080240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE MONONA O'BRIEN
OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH WOODBURY
NEC003-009-011-017-021-039-043-051-071-089-115-119-139-149-167-
173-179-183-080240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE
BROWN BURT CUMING
DAKOTA DIXON GARFIELD
HOLT LOUP MADISON
PIERCE ROCK STANTON
THURSTON WAYNE WHEELER
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0492 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LAA TO
30 SSE GLD TO 30 W LBF.
..WEINMAN..07/08/25
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...LBF...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC109-153-193-203-080240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN RAWLINS THOMAS
WICHITA
NEC063-085-087-111-145-080240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK
LINCOLN RED WILLOW
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC MD 1601
MD 1601 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495... FOR SOUTHWEST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495...
VALID 080344Z - 080515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS MAY SPREAD A LITTLE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH. THE NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WATCH
INTO MISSOURI IS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED INTO A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED/BOWING SEGMENT THAT HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED MEASURED GUSTS
UP TO 67 MPH IN THE OMAHA AREA. LOCAL RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IS SEVERAL MILES AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
CORES, WITH A 40-50 KT REAR INFLOW SIGNATURE. THE ORIENTATION OF
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT AN
ANAFRONTAL CONFIGURATION SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH VERY GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE STORMS OVER TIME. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING/SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS WHICH COULD
SPREAD A COUPLE OF COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH
CONFIGURATION. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT, THE NEED FOR A NEW/DOWNSTREAM WATCH INTO MO IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN.
..THOMPSON.. 07/08/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 41059552 41529503 41439457 41129426 40669439 40439460
40099537 40029606 40269669 40739675 40869649 41059552
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 8, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2025
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SEVERE WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE
THE MAIN THREATS.
...01Z UPDATE...
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE UPPER RED
RIVER VALLEY, AND 500MB FLOW IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM EASTERN ND-CENTRAL SD-NEAR CYS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE
SLOWLY INTO NORTHERN MN, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CONVECTION HAS LARGELY CONCENTRATED
ALONG/NEAR THE WIND SHIFT, BUT LARGE CONVECTIVE-FREE GAPS ARE NOTED,
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NE. EVEN SO, THERE IS SOME EXPECTATION FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED ROBUST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NE,
PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME INFLUENCE IN OUTFLOW AIDING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A
LARGER CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SD/NE/IA
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, BUT LLJ IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG INTO THIS COMPLEX. HIGHER-BASED CONVECTION IS
ALSO CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHWEST NE INTO NORTHWEST KS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR WIND/HAIL.
OVERALL, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SEASONALLY WEAK AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED POCKETS OF SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION MUCH
OF THE EVENING.
..DARROW.. 07/08/2025
READ MORE
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JAVA - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 4
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