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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.04.25 06:35l 235 Lines 8692 Bytes #257 (0) @ WW
BID : 212_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 11-APR25
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PD0LPM<VE3CGR<VE3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 250412/0430Z 212@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT APR 12 00:43:01 UTC 2025
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT APR 12 00:43:01 UTC 2025.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT APR 12 00:43:01 UTC 2025
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT APR 12 00:43:01 UTC 2025.
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SPC APR 12, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2025
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM
PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA.
...DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH
SEVERAL MINOR PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE,
A LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA, WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT THIS EVENING. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME MORE STABLE, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 04/12/2025
READ MORE
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SPC APR 11, 2025 2000 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 2000Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2025
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
...DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITHIN THE BROADER
AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION, THE STRONGEST STORMS ONGOING
AT THIS TIME ARE INDICATED ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA, WHERE 500 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE HAS EVOLVED AS A
RESULT OF AFTERNOON HEATING BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE, AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN
GEORGIA ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE PANHANDLE, ALONG A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT. LIMITED/LOCAL SEVERE RISK MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THIS
REGION IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
OVERALL, ANY ONGOING SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH DIURNALLY
THIS EVENING.
..GOSS.. 04/11/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2025/
...NORTH FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AS ONE EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMUM ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE CAROLINAS, AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN NC AND FAR SOUTHEAST VA, WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FL. SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S, IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH COLD
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG WITH
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE CYCLONE TRACK ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS, AND ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTH FL. THE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ALOFT SUGGEST SOME
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A FEW LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER, BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST, WITH A
LIMITED OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2025
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
EXPANDED ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS INTO PORTIONS OF ARIZONA PARTIALLY DUE
TO INCREASINGLY DRY FUEL INDICES ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WITHIN AN ONGOING SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT IN
SOME AREAS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST (SEE BELOW) FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WITHIN A SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF 20-30 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA COULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..WILLIAMS/WEINMAN.. 04/11/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2025/
...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH TO WESTERN TROUGH, CENTRAL RIDGE, AND EASTERN
TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AT THE SAME TIME AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
CONTINUES EAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD STRETCH FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN TROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS (LOCALLY INTO THE
UPPER-SINGLE DIGITS) WITH GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE
CRITICAL AREA.
SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA WILL BE A LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED.
WITHIN THE ELEVATED, SURFACE WINDS MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS IN THE
CORRIDOR HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CRITICAL AREA. THIS, COUPLED WITH ERC
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 80%, SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR
CRITICAL DELINEATION.
... FLORIDA PENINSULA ...
A DRY, POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE PENINSULA WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THUS,
FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY. THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FLOW TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2025
VALID 131200Z - 191200Z
A DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON DAY
3/SUNDAY WILL TRANSLATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH DAY 5/TUESDAY. ENHANCED WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP
A DRY, DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LIKELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY 3/SUNDAY WHERE DRY, DROUGHT STRESSED FUELS
EXIST. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN A DRY, POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN
ADDITION TO A LACK OF PRECIPITATION AND PERSISTENT RECEPTIVE FUELS
COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAY 4/MONDAY. PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG
WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LEAST AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM DAY 5/TUESDAY THROUGH DAY 7/THURSDAY.
..WILLIAMS/WEINMAN.. 04/11/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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