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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.07.24 09:09l 521 Lines 15468 Bytes #234 (0) @ WW
BID : 4446_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-JUL24
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<GB7CIP<VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 240716/0700Z 4446@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542
WW 542 SEVERE TSTM IL IN 160255Z - 160900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 542
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1055 PM
UNTIL 500 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A WELL-FORMED, BOWING SQUALL LINE WITH A HISTORY OF
DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ILLINOIS INTO
INDIANA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS OF 60-75 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND A TORNADO OR TWO WITH
EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF DECATUR IL TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS IN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 539...WW 541...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW
CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
30040.
...THOMPSON
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 541
WW 541 TORNADO IA IL IN MI WI LM 152350Z - 160600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 541
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INDIANA
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 650 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 90
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE BOW
ECHOES FROM IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING, WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SWATHS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE GUSTS UP TO 75-90
MPH AND SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THE STORMS
WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER TONIGHT.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHWEST OF BENTON HARBOR MI
TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MARSEILLES IL. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 539...WW 540...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 29040.
...THOMPSON
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539
WW 539 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO WI 152020Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 85
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP ACROSS IOWA IN A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ACTIVITY WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING BOWING CLUSTER, CAPABLE OF VERY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THIS REGION.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF DES
MOINES IA TO 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ROCKFORD IL. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 538...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27035.
...HART
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0542 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0542 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 541 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0541 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 541
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW MLI
TO 40 ENE BMI TO 45 SW VPZ TO 25 WNW VPZ TO 35 ENE RAC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1644
..MOORE..07/16/24
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...IWX...GRR...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 541
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC017-019-039-057-075-107-113-115-125-129-137-143-147-167-171-
179-183-203-160440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS CHAMPAIGN DE WITT
FULTON IROQUOIS LOGAN
MCLEAN MACON MASON
MENARD MORGAN PEORIA
PIATT SANGAMON SCOTT
TAZEWELL VERMILION WOODFORD
INC007-017-039-049-069-073-085-087-091-099-103-111-113-127-131-
141-149-169-181-183-160440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CASS ELKHART
FULTON HUNTINGTON JASPER
KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 540 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0540 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 540
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AVP
TO 45 NE MSV TO 20 W ALB TO 45 ENE UCA TO 30 ENE ART.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1640
..MOORE..07/16/24
ATTN...WFO...ALY...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 540
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC001-021-027-039-041-083-091-093-111-160240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY COLUMBIA DUTCHESS
GREENE HAMILTON RENSSELAER
SARATOGA SCHENECTADY ULSTER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0539 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 539
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N IRK TO
30 ESE OTM TO 25 SSW MLI TO 35 SSW OSH.
..MOORE..07/16/24
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...ILX...LOT...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 539
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC067-071-109-187-160240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HANCOCK HENDERSON MCDONOUGH
WARREN
IAC057-087-111-177-160240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DES MOINES HENRY LEE
VAN BUREN
MOC045-199-160240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK SCOTLAND
READ MORE
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SPC MD 1644
MD 1644 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 541... FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 541...
VALID 160313Z - 160515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 541 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT (75+ MPH) WIND
GUSTS AND QLCS TORNADOES AS A MCS MOVES INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES, MULTIPLE QLCS TORNADOES HAVE
BEEN NOTED IN VELOCITY/CORRELATION COEFFICIENT DATA FROM RADARS OUT
OF THE CHICAGO, IL AREA. ADDITIONALLY, A MEASURED WIND GUST OF 75
MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE O'HARE AIRPORT, AND THE KLOT VWP OBSERVED 60
KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST KILOMETER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE GUST FRONT. GOES IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS PORTION OF THE
MCS IS CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. A BUOYANT AIR
MASS REMAINS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NORTHWEST IN AND FAR
SOUTHWEST MI, AND WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT OVERLY
STRONG DOWNSTREAM, WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MCS DUE TO THE DEEPENING MCV CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN (SUCH AS TREND WAS NOTED IN THE KLOT
VWP PRIOR TO MCS PASSAGE, AND A SIMILAR TREND IS CURRENTLY BEING
NOTED IN THE KIWX VWP). CONSEQUENTLY, THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
WIND GUSTS AND QLCS TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
..MOORE.. 07/16/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...
LAT...LON 40928622 40648670 40518703 40478736 40528761 40658784
40758788 40968770 41328759 41568756 41688728 41848669
42098649 42028617 41878603 41378607 40928622
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SPC MD 1643
MD 1643 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0937 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 160237Z - 160400Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A DOWNSTREAM WATCH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS A SEVERE MCS CONTINUES
TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST.
DISCUSSION...THE SOUTHERN END OF A SEVERE MCS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED
INTO EASTERN IL/CENTRAL IN. SEVERE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED
WITH THIS LINE OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES, AND GOES IR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG UPDRAFT PULSES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD POOL. HIGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT DOWNSTREAM INTO
CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL IN (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S) WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTS OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION RESULTING IN AMPLE
BUOYANCY (3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE) WITH LIMITED INHIBITION FOR MCS
MAINTENANCE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE MCS TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL IN WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT
FOR SEVERE WINDS, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICATION SEVERE
WINDS (75+ MPH).
..MOORE/THOMPSON.. 07/16/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38738901 38808942 38938961 39178967 39408960 39628940
39698912 39658877 39738806 40208745 40908670 40958599
40838534 40528520 39838538 39288603 38918718 38758807
38738901
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SPC JUL 16, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2024
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA....
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
MODERATE RISK AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
DAMAGING SQUALL LINE WILL SURGE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING, SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCING INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY GUST
IN EXCESS OF 75MPH ALONG THE SURGING BOW.
...01Z UPDATE...
SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF UPPER MS VALLEY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO
BE ENCOURAGING CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
EVENING. LATEST RADAR DATA EXHIBITS MARKED UPSCALE GROWTH IN AN MCS
THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN WI, ARCING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST
IL INTO SOUTHEAST IA. SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP SHIELD/COLD POOL IS
EVOLVING WHICH WILL AID FORWARD PROPAGATION DOWNSTREAM INTO A
RESERVOIR OF BUOYANCY THAT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF
4000 J/KG, AS FAR EAST AS PORTIONS OF INDIANA. NUMEROUS SEVERE WIND
GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS EVOLVING COMPLEX AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE LEADING SQUALL LINE SURGES ACROSS NORTHERN IL TOWARD
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN (INCLUDING GREATER CHICAGO METRO). WHILE
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE COMMON, EMBEDDED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE QLCS.
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NY, SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND REPORTS CONTINUE WITH
A BROKEN SQUALL LINE THAT IS ADVANCING INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS
CONVECTION IS MOVING THROUGH THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS, AND
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FURTHER EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
..DARROW.. 07/16/2024
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