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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.07.24 09:03l 136 Lines 5159 Bytes #230 (0) @ WW
BID : 4252_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12-JUL24
Path: IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<PI8ZTM<PI8LAP<K5DAT<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 240712/0700Z 4252@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI JUL 12 03:39:01 UTC 2024
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI JUL 12 03:39:01 UTC 2024.
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SPC MD 1582
MD 1582 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 120336Z - 120500Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL RISK MAY PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST
MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS; HOWEVER,
LONG-TERM TRENDS SHOULD FAVOR DESTRUCTIVE STORM INTERACTIONS AND AN
OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER KANSAS CITY
REGION HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL (UP TO 1.75
INCHES) OVER ROUGHLY THE PAST HOUR. WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORM LONGEVITY
HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIMITED, DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, NEW CONVECTIVE TOWERS ARE NOTED TO THE NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHEAST KS AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION PIVOTS INTO THE
REGION. MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (AROUND 25-30 KNOTS) IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM LONGEVITY/ORGANIZATION, AND STORM
MOTIONS/PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG THE DEVELOPING
INITIATION AXIS SHOULD FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH AND DESTRUCTIVE STORM
INTERACTIONS WITH TIME. HOWEVER, PRIOR TO UPSCALE GROWTH MORE
DISCRETE, INTENSE UPDRAFT PULSES MAY REALIZE THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE BASED ON THE 00Z TOP SOUNDING AND
RECENT RAP MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES) AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST
KS TO NORTHWEST MO.
..MOORE/GLEASON.. 07/12/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 38449413 38919508 39259583 39569630 39819638 39989629
40089607 40059552 39779476 39439407 39179378 38939364
38729361 38569363 38489369 38429379 38409386 38449413
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 12, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2024
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
SOUTH AZ AND SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO...
...SUMMARY...
SPORADIC SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
ABOUT DUSK. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
...SOUTHERN AZ...
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS AROUND 60 F, MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HAVE BEEN SURGING WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE
I-10/19 CORRIDORS IN SOUTHEAST AZ. WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
NOTED IN EMX VWP DATA AND FURTHER CONFIRMED BY THE 00Z TUS SOUNDING
WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW HOLDING FROM 15-20 KTS. THIS HAS YIELDED A MORE
DISORGANIZED AND VARIABLE OUTFLOW DIRECTION, ALTHOUGH SOME LOOSE
CLUSTERING APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED IN THE GREATER TUCSON VICINITY.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
BORDER AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR
SPORADIC SEVERE GUSTS.
...SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO...
ALONG A WEAK, QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING OVER SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO. A VERTICALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILE, SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES BENEATH MODEST
MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES, WILL SUSTAIN OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION
WITH SLOW-MOVING DISCRETE CELLS. WITH MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG, AS
SAMPLED BY THE 00Z TOP SOUNDING, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
FLOW THIS EVENING MAY YIELD CONVECTION PERSISTING AFTER DUSK,
ALTHOUGH TENDING TO BECOME ELEVATED AND DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE FRONT WITH TIME. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE
OVERNIGHT.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
HIGH-BASED, LOWER-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BUOYANCY PLUME AMID MODERATE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. WHILE A LOCALIZED STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO, THE UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE APPEARS LESS THAN 5
PERCENT.
..GRAMS.. 07/12/2024
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