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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.07.24 09:03l 81 Lines 3169 Bytes #222 (0) @ WW
BID : 3931_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 05-JUL24
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<DK0WUE<VK5RSV<K1AJD<KA1VSC<K7EK<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 240705/0700Z 3931@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI JUL 5 02:56:02 UTC 2024
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI JUL 5 02:56:02 UTC 2024.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI JUL 5 02:56:02 UTC 2024
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI JUL 5 02:56:02 UTC 2024.
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SPC JUL 5, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU JUL 04 2024
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, OZARKS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
MISSOURI. A MOIST AIRMASS IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT, WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE UPPER 70S F. RAP ANALYSIS HAS
MLCAPE NEAR THE FRONT RANGING FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NEAR 4000 J/KG IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WSR-88D
VWPS NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY AND TULSA GENERALLY HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE
25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. THIS, ALONG WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
THIS EVENING. THE MARGINAL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE
SOUTHERN OZARKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS NEW CONVECTION
INITIATES. THE STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS COULD ALSO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST AIRMASS IS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ARE GENERALLY ARE IN THE 65 TO 70 F RANGE, WITH RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING
MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1200 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND
NEAR AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY. NEAR THIS AXIS, THE WSR-88D VWP AT
LACROSSE, WISCONSIN HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KNOTS. THIS, ALONG WITH
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT THIS EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..BROYLES.. 07/05/2024
READ MORE
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