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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.07.24 09:03l 335 Lines 9242 Bytes #218 (0) @ WW
BID : 3744_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01-JUL24
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<DK0WUE<VK5RSV<VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 240701/0700Z 3744@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493
WW 493 SEVERE TSTM MT ND 010245Z - 010700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MONTANA
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 845 PM
UNTIL 100 AM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND
POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS (60-75 MPH) AND LARGE HAIL (1 TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER). THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR CLUSTER AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST
OF SIDNEY MT TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MILES CITY MT. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
25040.
...SMITH
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0493 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0493 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0492 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DLN TO
25 NE WEY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501.
..GRAMS..07/01/24
ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC057-010240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MADISON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0491 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 491
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE RDU TO
35 SE CHO TO 15 NNW CHO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500
..WEINMAN..07/01/24
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RAH...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 491
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-005-010140-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT SUSSEX
DCC001-010140-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-
037-039-041-045-047-510-010140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 490 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0490 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 490
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW EEN
TO 10 ESE AUG TO 50 S HUL.
..WEINMAN..06/30/24
ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR...BTV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 490
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MEC001-005-009-013-015-023-027-029-031-302240-
ME
. MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDROSCOGGIN CUMBERLAND HANCOCK
KNOX LINCOLN SAGADAHOC
WALDO WASHINGTON YORK
NHC001-005-011-013-015-017-019-302240-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELKNAP CHESHIRE HILLSBOROUGH
MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD
SULLIVAN
ANZ050-051-052-150-151-152-153-154-302240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
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SPC MD 1502
MD 1502 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
MT/WESTERN ND
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493...
VALID 010336Z - 010500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS A
PART OF EAST-CENTRAL MONTANA BEFORE WEAKENING IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET EARLIER THIS EVENING
(THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF WHICH IS SAMPLED BY THE BISMARCK VWP),
YIELDED AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM DECAYED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THUS FAR, SEVERE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 53 KTS HAVE BEEN MEASURED AT MILES CITY, WITH
GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN TREASURE COUNTY, MT. RECENTLY, THE
MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS HAVE ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD IN EAST-CENTRAL
MT. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS MLCIN BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE ORIENTATION OF THIS
EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN STORMS ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASINGLY MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IN WESTERN ND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND
TO STORMS AS THEY SPREAD FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THAT
TIME, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z.
..GRAMS.. 07/01/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 47590599 48190480 48390391 48410310 48030270 47660296
47200341 46780515 46750577 47320626 47590599
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SPC JUL 1, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS IN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO PERHAPS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
...MID-ATLANTIC...
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY MOVED OFFSHORE, THOUGH SCATTERED STORMS STILL
REMAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND AROUND 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR (SAMPLED BY THE 00Z
IAD SOUNDING) SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO AT LEAST THE MID EVENING.
...MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE TERRAIN AREAS OF WESTERN
MONTANA. STORMS HAVE GENERALLY STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY,
HOWEVER. MLCIN REMAINS PRESENT IN EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE OVERALL LONGEVITY OF CONVECTION, AS WELL AS COVERAGE,
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AN INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING
COULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE MID/LATE EVENING.
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN RISKS.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY...
CONTINUED STRONGER FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PARTS OF EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS REMAIN. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
...ARIZONA...
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG HEATING IN
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. AN MCV EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO HAS
LIKELY AIDED IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND MODEST ORGANIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
CONVECTION/OUTFLOW MAY TRY TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD PHOENIX WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 100S F.
..WENDT.. 07/01/2024
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