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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.06.24 09:18l 311 Lines 8342 Bytes #200 (0) @ WW
BID : 3009_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13-JUN24
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PD0LPM<VE3CGR<VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 240613/0700Z 3009@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407
WW 407 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 130025Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN IOWA
EASTERN NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM 725 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF SEVERE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATCH
AREA THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE
OF VERY LARGE TO GIANT HAIL (2 TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER), LOCALIZED
SEVERE GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DENISON IA TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF OMAHA NE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 405...WW 406...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
33020.
...SMITH
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0407 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 407
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE OLU TO
45 NNW LWD.
..JEWELL..06/13/24
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 407
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC129-137-130440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MILLS MONTGOMERY
NEC153-155-130440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SARPY SAUNDERS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 406 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0406 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 406
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S STC TO
20 NNW STC TO 25 WNW DLH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244
..WEINMAN..06/13/24
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 406
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-009-017-025-059-065-095-115-141-130240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BENTON CARLTON
CHISAGO ISANTI KANABEC
MILLE LACS PINE SHERBURNE
WIC013-095-130240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURNETT POLK
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0405 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 405
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FAR TO
45 NW ELO TO 20 SW GNA TO 20 SE AXN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244
..WEINMAN..06/13/24
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 405
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC007-069-077-089-113-135-130240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELTRAMI KITTSON LAKE OF THE WOODS
MARSHALL PENNINGTON ROSEAU
NDC067-099-130240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PEMBINA WALSH
WIC003-005-007-031-129-130240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD
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SPC MD 1245
MD 1245 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407... FOR FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN IOWA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1245
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0911 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407...
VALID 130211Z - 130415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL PERSISTS OVER A SMALL AREA OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA IN THE NEAR TERM. STORMS WILL
LIKELY SHRINK IN SIZE DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF LARGE SUPERCELLS WITH HISTORY OF VERY LARGE
HAIL REMAIN OVER WESTERN IA INTO FAR EASTERN NE NEAR THE OMAHA AREA.
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OAX SHOWS A RATHER DEEP MOIST LAYER UP TO
NEARLY 700 MB, NOT FAR FROM THE LFC, WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR.
GIVEN THE LOSS OF HEATING, THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GAIN
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RELATIVELY QUICKLY, PERHAPS IN THE NEXT HOUR,
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND WITH THESE CELLS. UNTIL
THEN, HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 03-04Z, WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL PRIOR TO
..JEWELL.. 06/13/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...
LAT...LON 41439612 41529605 41629584 41619552 41529532 41039511
40829514 40729539 40749566 40889593 41119610 41439612
READ MORE
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SPC JUN 13, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NE
INTO PARTS OF MN/WI...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AND A COUPLE TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING.
...PARTS OF MN/WI INTO IA/EASTERN NE...
A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF MN, WITHIN
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INTO PARTS OF WI, WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS, AND A COUPLE TORNADOES. AN
EVENTUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS MLCINH
CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGIONWIDE.
FARTHER SOUTH, AN INTENSE SUPERCELL CLUSTER IS ONGOING NEAR THE
NE/IA BORDER, NORTH OF OMAHA, WITHIN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND
FAVORABLE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS CLUSTER MAY CONTINUE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT, BEFORE STORMS
WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING MLCINH. THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AS LONG AS
THIS CLUSTER PERSISTS.
OVERNIGHT, SOME GUIDANCE (INCLUDING RECENT HRRR RUNS) SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN.
MODERATE ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT.
..DEAN.. 06/13/2024
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