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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.06.24 09:16l 456 Lines 14234 Bytes #196 (0) @ WW
BID : 2818_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 09-JUN24
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PI8ZTM<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 240609/0700Z 2818@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400
WW 400 SEVERE TSTM KS 090050Z - 090800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 750 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH AND VERY LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF GARDEN
CITY KS TO 20 MILES NORTH OF WICHITA KS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF
THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 398...WW 399...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
29035.
...BUNTING
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399
WW 399 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO 082225Z - 090600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 399
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 525
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED, IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. POSSIBLY UP TO
2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION, A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF JOPLIN MO TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF POPLAR BLUFF MO. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 398...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
30025.
...BUNTING
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0400 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 400
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW GCK
TO 60 N GCK.
..SPC..06/09/24
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 400
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-067-069-077-079-081-083-
093-095-097-101-105-113-119-135-145-151-155-159-165-167-169-171-
173-175-185-189-191-195-090440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLARK
COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS
ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD
GRANT GRAY HARPER
HARVEY HASKELL HODGEMAN
KEARNY KINGMAN KIOWA
LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MEADE NESS PAWNEE
PRATT RENO RICE
RUSH RUSSELL SALINE
SCOTT SEDGWICK SEWARD
STAFFORD STEVENS SUMNER
TREGO
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0399 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 399
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..06/09/24
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SGF...EAX...PAH...LSX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 399
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-021-049-055-065-075-089-121-135-090440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLAY
FULTON GREENE IZARD
LAWRENCE MARION RANDOLPH
SHARP
KSC011-021-037-107-090440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
LINN
MOC009-011-013-015-023-029-035-039-043-055-057-059-065-067-077-
083-085-091-093-097-105-109-119-123-125-131-141-145-149-153-161-
167-169-179-181-185-186-187-203-209-213-215-217-221-223-225-229-
090440-
MO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0398 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 398
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W DEN TO
30 E SNY.
..THORNTON..06/08/24
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...LBF...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 398
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-011-017-025-031-035-039-041-059-061-063-073-075-087-
089-095-099-101-115-121-125-090040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BENT
CHEYENNE CROWLEY DENVER
DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO
JEFFERSON KIOWA KIT CARSON
LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN
OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS
PUEBLO SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
YUMA
KSC023-071-109-181-193-199-203-090040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN
SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE
WICHITA
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SPC MD 1211
MD 1211 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT SAT JUN 08 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400...
VALID 090303Z - 090430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF SEVERE GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. 60-70
MPH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF ORGANIZED STORMS THAT TRACKED EASTWARD OUT
OF SOUTHEASTERN CO IS SHOWING SIGNS OF UPSCALE GROWTH, GIVEN RECENT
DOWNSTREAM WARM-ADVECTION-DRIVEN CONVECTION. STRONG LOW-LEVEL
VEERING WINDS (SAMPLED BY DDC VWP) SUGGESTS WARM-AIR ADVECTION MAY
FURTHER AID IN UPSCALE GROWTH. AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION, ANTECEDENT
HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER (MIDDLE/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS),
BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, HAS YIELDED A
FAVORABLE EAST/WEST-ORIENTED AXIS OF MODERATE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. AS THE UPSCALE-GROWING CLUSTER TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
THIS INSTABILITY, THE COLD POOL MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED, GIVEN
AROUND 40 KT OF LINE-ORTHOGONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE PRIMARY RISK
SHOULD BE SEVERE GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED STRONGER ROTATING CORES.
..WEINMAN.. 06/09/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37930158 38570120 38830075 38870023 38699949 38359917
37559920 37119955 37070036 37120106 37290148 37600169
37930158
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SPC MD 1210
MD 1210 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399... FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
REGION
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0937 PM CDT SAT JUN 08 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MISSOURI REGION
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399...
VALID 090237Z - 090400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL IS THE GREATEST CONCERN. NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED SOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW (1KM AGL) IS GRADUALLY
INCREASING ACROSS NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO.
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLANK
OF THE SOUTHERN MO CONVECTION. LATEST IR DATA SUGGESTS SOME
THICKENING OF MID-LEVEL CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST KS BUT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS YET TO DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING. 00Z SOUNDING FROM
SGF WAS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG, VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES, AND HIGH PW VALUES. LATEST THINKING IS NEW UPDRAFTS
WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF WW399 THEN
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MO/AR BORDER. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THIS NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION
MAY OSCILLATE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH GIVEN EXPECTED NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO.
NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KS.
..DARROW.. 06/09/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
LAT...LON 38549480 37779021 36179019 36969482 38549480
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SPC JUN 9, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SAT JUN 08 2024
VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 70-85 MPH
AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE
FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KS...
MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING
FROM EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS THIS EVENING, WITH A SHORT-TERM
THREAT OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, SEVERE GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. WITH TIME, CONSOLIDATION INTO A LARGER STORM CLUSTER AND
POSSIBLY AN MCS REMAINS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING SEVERE GUSTS IN THE 70-85 MPH RANGE
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS LATER THIS EVENING.
SEE MCD 1208 FOR MORE INFORMATION.
...SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHERN MO...EXTREME NORTHEAST OK/NORTHERN AR...
SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN MO, IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAKLY CONFLUENT SURFACE
BOUNDARY. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. SEE MCD 1207 FOR MORE
INFORMATION REGARDING THE SHORT-TERM THREAT IN THIS AREA. SOME
MODEST UPSCALE GROWTH OF ONGOING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH TIME,
WHICH COULD SPREAD A DAMAGING-WIND THREAT TOWARD PARTS OF THE MID
MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AND POTENTIALLY INTO WESTERN TN.
OVERNIGHT, MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY AN MCS MAY MOVE
ACROSS FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN KS AND SOUTHWEST MO, AND PERHAPS
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHERN OK/AR. THE LONGEVITY OF THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE OVERNIGHT STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH CINH
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH TIME, BUT AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL COULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
...NORTHERN CA INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN OR...
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING FROM EXTREME
NORTHERN CA INTO SOUTHERN OR. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION SUBSIDES
LATER TONIGHT.
..DEAN.. 06/09/2024
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