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LU9DCE > ALERT 25.05.24 09:05l 616 Lines 19103 Bytes #180 (0) @ WW
BID : 2107_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 25-MAY24
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Sent: 240525/0701Z 2107@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305
WW 305 SEVERE TSTM AR MS 242320Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY EVENING FROM 620 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS, SOME WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURE, MAY
PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WHILE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL
OF 1-2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH LATE EVENING.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PINE BLUFF AR TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF OXFORD MS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 302...WW 303...WW 304...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
31020.
...THOMPSON
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 304
WW 304 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 242125Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
425 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 425 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IN THE
OPEN WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE
STORM ENVIRONMENT FAVORS A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND STORM CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF VICHY
MO TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MONETT MO. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 302...WW 303...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
29025.
...THOMPSON
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303
WW 303 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 242010Z - 250300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. A FEW STORM
CLUSTERS WITH AN INCREASED DAMAGING WIND RISK MAY EVOLVE BY EARLY
EVENING WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF
FAYETTEVILLE AR TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TEMPLE TX. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 302...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26025.
...GUYER
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302
WW 302 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO 241940Z - 250200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IOWA
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN VICINITY OF MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES, WITH
BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
KIRKSVILLE MO TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DECATUR IL. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
25025.
...GUYER
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0305 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 305
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW LIT TO
55 ENE LIT.
..LYONS..05/25/24
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 305
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-041-069-079-095-107-250140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS DESHA JEFFERSON
LINCOLN MONROE PHILLIPS
MSC011-013-015-019-027-043-071-083-097-107-119-133-135-155-161-
250140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CALHOUN CARROLL
CHOCTAW COAHOMA GRENADA
LAFAYETTE LEFLORE MONTGOMERY
PANOLA QUITMAN SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE WEBSTER YALOBUSHA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 304 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0304 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 304
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S GMJ TO
25 NW SGF TO 20 E COU.
..MOORE..05/25/24
ATTN...WFO...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 304
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC009-029-043-059-065-067-077-091-105-109-119-125-131-149-153-
161-167-169-203-209-213-215-225-229-250240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN
DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS
GREENE HOWELL LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES
MILLER OREGON OZARK
PHELPS POLK PULASKI
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0303 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 303
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ESE BWD TO
30 W CRS TO 20 NE PRX TO 20 SE MLC TO 35 SSE CQB.
..BROYLES..05/25/24
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...OUN...FWD...EWX...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 303
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-011-013-015-019-025-027-033-039-043-047-053-057-059-061-
073-081-083-087-091-099-103-109-113-127-131-133-139-143-
250340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BRADLEY CALHOUN
CARROLL CLARK CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DALLAS
DREW FRANKLIN GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
MADISON MILLER NEVADA
OUACHITA PIKE POLK
SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER
UNION WASHINGTON
OKC001-021-061-077-079-089-091-101-121-127-135-250340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE HASKELL
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0302 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 302
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW JEF TO
35 E COU TO 50 ENE COU TO 20 S UIN TO 10 ESE UIN TO 35 SW PIA TO
15 SSE PIA TO 15 NW BMI.
..LYONS..05/25/24
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 302
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-009-013-017-021-025-027-049-051-061-083-107-115-117-119-
121-125-129-133-135-137-139-149-157-163-167-171-173-189-
250140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND BROWN CALHOUN
CASS CHRISTIAN CLAY
CLINTON EFFINGHAM FAYETTE
GREENE JERSEY LOGAN
MACON MACOUPIN MADISON
MARION MASON MENARD
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
MOULTRIE PIKE RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIR SANGAMON SCOTT
SHELBY WASHINGTON
MOC055-071-073-093-099-113-123-139-151-163-179-183-186-187-189-
219-221-510-250140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
READ MORE
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SPC MD 946
MD 0946 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 304... FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 304...
VALID 250246Z - 250445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 304
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THESE STORMS MAY PERIODICALLY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE
LIMITS AND POSE A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT AS IT MIGRATES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MO. ALTHOUGH THE OBSERVED 00
UTC SGF SOUNDING SAMPLED AN VERY SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION (MLCAPE NEARLY 3000 J/KG WITH A 0-6 KM BWD VALUE OF 45
KNOTS), CONVECTION HAS LARGELY STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY,
LIKELY OWING TO A COMBINATION OF DIMINISHING FORCING FOR ASCENT
ALONG THE FRONT AND THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. HOWEVER,
A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST 30
MINUTES AND HAVE INTENSIFIED TO SEVERE LIMITS BASED ON MRMS VERTICAL
ICE AND MESH ESTIMATES. GIVEN WEAK ASCENT WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE EXPECTATION THROUGH 04 UTC IS FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTION WITH OCCASIONAL STRONGER
UPDRAFT PULSES THAT MAY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LIMITS. UNLESS A MORE
ROBUST CELL CAN DEVELOP SOME DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL ROTATION AND/OR A
SUFFICIENTLY INTENSE COLD POOL, STORM LONGEVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ISOLATED AS STORMS MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MO AND ALONG THE MO/AR
BORDER.
..MOORE.. 05/25/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36289441 37009320 37179266 37139211 37099164 36879156
36719163 36559191 36359258 36169321 36089356 36099395
36149419 36289441
READ MORE
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SPC MD 945
MD 0945 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303...305... FOR FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...NORTHEAST TEXAS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0902 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...NORTHEAST TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303...305...
VALID 250202Z - 250400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303, 305
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS, ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST OF CELLS COULD ALSO HAVE
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
DISCUSSION...LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MCS, WITH
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS, LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARK-LA-TEX IS STRONGLY
UNSTABLE WITH THE RAP ESTIMATING MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 3000 TO
4000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAVE MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WITH
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7 TO 7.5 C/KM RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE MORE INTENSE SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE EVENING, BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AS INSTABILITY
BEGINS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
..BROYLES.. 05/25/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 32689284 33359151 33809103 34209091 34699138 34969203
35409304 35679373 35689430 35229465 34759474 34009469
33499495 32749621 32279666 31859659 31629632 31679559
32179414 32689284
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 25, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024
VALID 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TX TO
THE MID-SOUTH AND MID-MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MID-SOUTH AND
MID-MS VALLEY.
...CENTRAL TX TO THE MID-SOUTH...
DESPITE NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, REPORTED HAIL
MAGNITUDES HAVE LARGELY HELD FROM QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE THUS
FAR. RECENTLY, SUPERCELL NUMBERS HAVE SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT ACROSS NORTH
TX INTO EASTERN OK, WITH THE MORE INTENSE ONES IN AN ARC ACROSS
NORTHEAST TX AND NORTHERN MS, WHERE BASEBALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED
THIS HOUR. AS SUCH, HAVE SHIFTED THE SIG SEVERE HAIL TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE RECENT TRENDS.
THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE TONIGHT MAY CURTAIL
GREATER ORGANIZED UPSCALE GROWTH AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. STILL, GIVEN
THE LARGE NUMBER OF CELLS ALONG WITH AMPLE MLCAPE (AS SAMPLED BY THE
00Z SHV SOUNDING), SOME CLUSTERING APPEARS LIKELY INTO TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD FAVOR MORE OF A MIX OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...MID-MS VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS CLUSTERS NEAR THE COLD FRONT/LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW
INTERSECTION SHOULD EVOLVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING ALONG
THE MLCAPE GRADIENT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE MID-SOUTH. SPORADIC STRONG
TO LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS, ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
..GRAMS.. 05/25/2024
READ MORE
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