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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.05.24 09:34l 394 Lines 11221 Bytes #173 (0) @ WW
BID : 9941_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-MAY24
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PI8ZTM<PI8LAP<PA8F<VE3CGR<K7EK<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 240518/0700Z 9941@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 256
WW 256 TORNADO FL GA CW 172345Z - 180500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FLORIDA AND PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 100 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A BROKEN BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA DURING THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, SEVERE GUSTS 60-70
MPH RESULTING IN WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS OR BOWING SEGMENTS, AS THEY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BRUNSWICK
GA TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARIANNA FL. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF
THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 253...WW 254...WW 255...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030.
...SMITH
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 255
WW 255 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 172230Z - 180500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 530 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE EAST INTO THE WATCH AREA DURING THE EVENING FROM THE
WEST. SEVERE GUSTS RANGING FROM 60-70 MPH AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL
ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF HALLOCK
MN TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MOBRIDGE SD. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 253...WW 254...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
25035.
...SMITH
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 256 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0256 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 256
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE AAF
TO 10 NE TLH TO 10 WSW VLD TO 30 W SSI TO 35 ENE SSI.
..KERR..05/18/24
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 256
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC003-023-047-065-067-073-079-121-123-129-180440-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER COLUMBIA HAMILTON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
MADISON SUWANNEE TAYLOR
WAKULLA
GAC039-049-101-180440-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMDEN CHARLTON ECHOLS
AMZ450-180440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 255 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0255 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 255
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MBG
TO 35 SE JMS TO 35 NNW FAR TO 25 NW TVF TO 15 NNW ROX.
..KERR..05/18/24
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 255
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC089-135-180440-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MARSHALL ROSEAU
NDC021-045-073-081-180440-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKEY LAMOURE RANSOM
SARGENT
SDC013-045-089-129-180440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN EDMUNDS MCPHERSON
WALWORTH
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 254 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0254 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 254
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CEW
TO 10 E CEW TO 15 SSE DHN TO 20 NNE MGR TO 30 S VDI.
..DEAN..05/18/24
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 254
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC059-063-131-133-180140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOLMES JACKSON WALTON
WASHINGTON
GAC019-027-071-075-087-131-173-185-253-275-180140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN BROOKS COLQUITT
COOK DECATUR GRADY
LANIER LOWNDES SEMINOLE
THOMAS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 253 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0253 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MBG TO
50 NW JMS.
..KERR..05/18/24
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC029-043-180240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EMMONS KIDDER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT MAY 18 03:27:05 UTC 2024
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT MAY 18 03:27:05 UTC 2024.
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SPC MAY 18, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024
VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST STATES WITH A
THREAT FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS EVENING.
...CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST...
PRIMARY NEAR-TERM TORNADO AND WIND THREAT WILL EXIST WITH A COUPLE
CLUSTERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND NORTH FL INTO FAR
SOUTHERN GA THIS EVENING. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LEADING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK OVERNIGHT, STRENGTHENING 700-MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT JUST OFFSHORE
OF THE UPPER TX GULF COAST. WITH A PLUME OF LARGE BUOYANCY
PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF, NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z LIX SOUNDING, SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL INITIALLY AFFECT SOUTH LA AND THEN SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. STRONG MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE A MIXED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL PREDOMINATELY CONSIST OF LINEAR CLUSTERING,
WHICH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT HAIL SIZE IN A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SIG SEVERE HAIL.
...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
SPORADIC SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EVENING WITHIN AN ARC OF HIGH-BASED/MODERATE-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTHWEST SD. A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
THIS POTENTIAL PERSISTING AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS BEYOND DUSK. BUT A
RAPID NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN MLCIN, AMID THE WEAKLY BUOYANT AIR MASS
AHEAD OF IT AS SAMPLED BY 00Z ABR SOUNDING, WILL RESULT IN A
DIMINISHING SEVERE WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT.
...MID-SOUTH AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...
AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN OK THAT IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER SOUTHERN-STREAM, POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH REGION. WITH A
POCKET OF ENHANCED MODERATE BUOYANCY OVER THE ARK-LA-MISS VICINITY,
IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A COUPLE STORMS MIGHT PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS GIVEN MODERATE SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 800
MB PER THE 00Z LZK SOUNDING.
A FEW STRONGER STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER A PORTION OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU REGION AHEAD OF THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE BROADER TROUGH. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK SHOULD PERSIST
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING AS MLCIN INCREASES
AFTER DUSK.
..GRAMS.. 05/18/2024
READ MORE
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