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LU9DCE > ALERT 02.05.24 09:16l 753 Lines 22835 Bytes #156 (0) @ WW
BID : 9078_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 02-MAY24
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Sent: 240502/0700Z 9078@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 175
WW 175 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 020340Z - 020900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WEST-CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1040
PM UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF CHICKASHA OK TO 75 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNWOOD TX. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 171...WW 172...WW
173...WW 174...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
25025.
...GUYER
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174
WW 174 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 020100Z - 020700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 174
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 800 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER DEVELOP FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS,
WHILE ADDITIONAL AREA OF STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MOST COMMON SEVERE HAZARD, BUT
LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AND SOME TORNADO RISK MAY EXIST
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BURLINGTON CO TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF HASTINGS NE. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 170...WW 171...WW
172...WW 173...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
25025.
...GUYER
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173
WW 173 SEVERE TSTM TX 020045Z - 020700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING, INCLUDING
PARTS OF THE I-35/I-45 CORRIDORS. BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, BUT A TORNADO COULD
ALSO OCCUR GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SOME STRENGTHENING OF
LOW-LEVEL WINDS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST
OF HUNTSVILLE TX TO 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW BRAUNFELS TX. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 170...WW 171...WW 172...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26025.
...GUYER
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 172
WW 172 TORNADO KS 012155Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 455 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING, INITIALLY NEAR A SURFACE
LOW AND DRYLINE AND WARM/NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. EVEN IF STORMS REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED, THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, AND VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF GARDEN CITY KS TO 55
MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF RUSSELL KS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 170...WW 171...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...GUYER
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 171
WW 171 TORNADO OK TX 012025Z - 020400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 4
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH LIKELY
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED BUT INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF LIBERAL KS TO
105 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS TX. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 170...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 175 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0175 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0175 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0174 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0174 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0173 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 173
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0598
..THORNTON..05/02/24
ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...EWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 173
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-015-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-089-091-145-149-161-171-
185-209-225-259-287-289-293-299-313-331-339-373-395-407-453-455-
471-473-477-491-020440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON AUSTIN BASTROP
BELL BLANCO BRAZOS
BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL
COLORADO COMAL FALLS
FAYETTE FREESTONE GILLESPIE
GRIMES HAYS HOUSTON
KENDALL LEE LEON
LIMESTONE LLANO MADISON
MILAM MONTGOMERY POLK
ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRAVIS
TRINITY WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 172 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0172 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 172
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW HUT
TO 45 WNW GCK.
..MOSIER..05/02/24
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-051-063-101-109-135-165-167-171-195-203-020340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON ELLIS GOVE
LANE LOGAN NESS
RUSH RUSSELL SCOTT
TREGO WICHITA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 171 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0171 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 171
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE BGS
TO 55 SSW CDS TO 25 W CDS TO 10 NNW AMA.
..MOSIER..05/02/24
ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 171
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-009-045-055-057-065-129-153-020340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER BECKHAM ELLIS
GREER HARMON JACKSON
ROGER MILLS WOODWARD
TXC011-065-075-087-101-129-155-179-191-195-197-211-233-263-269-
275-295-357-393-433-483-020340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON CHILDRESS
COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE DONLEY
FOARD GRAY HALL
HANSFORD HARDEMAN HEMPHILL
HUTCHINSON KENT KING
KNOX LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE
ROBERTS STONEWALL WHEELER
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0170 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 170
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE 6R6
TO 50 SSE MAF TO 35 SSE LBB.
..SQUITIERI..05/02/24
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 170
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-081-105-151-227-235-335-353-383-413-415-431-435-451-
020240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN COKE CROCKETT
FISHER HOWARD IRION
MITCHELL NOLAN REAGAN
SCHLEICHER SCURRY STERLING
SUTTON TOM GREEN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC MD 599
MD 0599 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 PM CDT WED MAY 01 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 020324Z - 020530Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUST AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY
CONTINUE EASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED,
EASTWARD-PROGRESSING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OK
AND NORTHWEST TX, WITH ITS EASTWARD PROPAGATION SUPPORTED BY OUTFLOW
FROM EARLIER STORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZATION OF THIS CLUSTER MAY BE UNDERWAY, WITH SOME THREAT FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL LIKELY TO PERSIST DOWNSTREAM
INTO MORE OF SOUTHWEST OK.
FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST TX, THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH STRENGTHENING WARM-AIR ADVECTION
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LESS ORGANIZED THAN WHATS OCCURRING FARTHER
NORTH, BUT SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION IS STILL POSSIBLE, WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE INTO
MORE OF NORTHWEST TX.
..MOSIER/GUYER.. 05/02/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 34510009 35479891 34789790 32909845 30659909 30539977
31550031 32550046 34510009
READ MORE
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SPC MD 598
MD 0598 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0598
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT WED MAY 01 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173...
VALID 020321Z - 020515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES IN WW173.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED, WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY INTENSIFYING TO
SEVERE LIMITS. THUS FAR REPORTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO A FEW HAIL
REPORTS AND REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE. TRENDS IN VAD DATA FROM EWX
AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO INDICATE THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL
JET IS UNDERWAY WITH INCREASING CURVATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH
AND INCREASING STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. UNDER THIS WARM ADVECTION
REGIME, STORM MODE HAS REMAINED VERY DISORGANIZED AND CLUSTERED.
FORECAST FROM THE HRRR HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION
OF STORMS INTO AN OVERNIGHT MCS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO WOULD INCREASE. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE INCREASE IN WIND PROFILES AND CONTINUED FAVORABLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE
RISK THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
..THORNTON/GUYER.. 05/02/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30819891 31249774 31549578 31569534 31379477 30949460
30569478 30169520 29799714 29799844 29859877 30079901
30319910 30819891
READ MORE
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SPC MD 597
MD 0597 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172...174... FOR FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL NE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0597
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0955 PM CDT WED MAY 01 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST CO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KS...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL NE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172...174...
VALID 020255Z - 020430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172, 174
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE, WITH THE TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
DISCUSSION...TWO SEPARATE CONVECTIVE REGIMES CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS
THE REGION, A DISCRETE MODE REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND A MORE
LINEAR, FORCED REGIME FROM FAR NORTHEAST CO INTO NORTHWESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NE. A PAIR OF PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS REMAIN WITHIN THE
DISCRETE MODE REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL KS, ALTHOUGH RECENT TRENDS
SUGGEST EACH OF THESE SUPERCELLS MAY BE WEAKENING AND BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DISSOCIATED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EVEN SO, MOIST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AMID A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET, WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW STORMS TO
PERSIST FOR A BIT LONGER BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS EXIST FARTHER NORTH FROM FAR NORTHEAST CO
INTO FAR NORTHWEST KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NE. THIS CLUSTER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE EASTWARD, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLE AS WELL. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL, WITH SOME STRONG
GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL, PARTICULARLY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS
CLUSTER AND WHEN ANY STORM MERGERS OCCUR.
..MOSIER.. 05/02/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38549857 38389994 38900151 39110272 39460288 39830194
40180137 40430108 40590074 40660003 40539947 40009840
38549857
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SPC MAY 2, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 PM CDT WED MAY 01 2024
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTH ACROSS
THE CONCHO VALLEY AREA OF TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE-WEATHER RISK WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD, TWO PRIMARY AREAS FOR SEVERE-WEATHER RISK WILL INCLUDE THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS VICINITY, AND ACROSS
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS.
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS REGION, A COUPLE OF SUPERCELL STORMS
PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO. UPSCALE GROWTH/EXPANSION
OF THE COLORADO STORMS IS EXPECTED WITH TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET, SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAIL SHOULD
BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WELL
NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS, A BROKEN BAND OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS
IS ONGOING FROM NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SO THE
SOUTH PLAINS, IN THE VICINITY OF A RETREATING DRYLINE. RECENT
REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING A TORNADO NEAR TURKEY HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED, AND EXPECT RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. WITH TIME, UPSCALE GROWTH OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED,
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET,
SPREADING EASTWARD WITH TIME ALONG WITH ONGOING SEVERE RISK INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHER CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE CONCHO
VALLEY VICINITY, OVER THE HILL COUNTRY, AND PORTIONS OF THE PINEY
WOODS REGION. THIS CONVECTION MAY ALSO PERSIST/SPREAD EASTWARD WITH
TIME IN THE BROAD WARM-ADVECTION REGIME, ALONG WITH LOCAL RISK FOR
HAIL/WIND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
..GOSS.. 05/02/2024
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