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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.04.24 00:02l 557 Lines 17540 Bytes #140 (0) @ WW
BID : 8284_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-APR24
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Sent: 240416/0700Z 8284@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 113
WW 113 TORNADO KS NE OK TX 160105Z - 160800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 PM CDT MON APR 15 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 805 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALONG A
DRYLINE FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS, WITH AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
AFTER DARK. A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE DISCRETE/PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS, ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL UP
TO 2.5-3 INCHES IN DIAMETER. SOME CLUSTERING OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60-75 MPH.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEARNEY NE TO 105
MILES SOUTH OF DODGE CITY KS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 109...WW 110...WW
111...WW 112...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...THOMPSON
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112
WW 112 SEVERE TSTM NE 152205Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 PM CDT MON APR 15 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 505 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
(POTENTIALLY UP TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER), THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60-70 MPH AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF VALENTINE NE TO 50 MILES WEST OF KEARNEY NE. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 109...WW 110...WW 111...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
20025.
...THOMPSON
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111
WW 111 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 152040Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM MDT MON APR 15 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST WYOMING
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING FROM NEAR THE BLACK HILLS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO
SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST OF RAPID
CITY SD TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PIERRE SD. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 109...WW 110...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
24035.
...SMITH
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 113 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0113 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 113
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/16/24
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...AMA...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-025-033-039-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-069-081-083-
089-097-101-105-119-123-135-137-141-145-147-151-159-163-165-167-
175-179-183-185-195-160440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLARK
COMANCHE DECATUR EDWARDS
ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY
FORD GOVE GRAHAM
GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN
JEWELL KIOWA LANE
LINCOLN MEADE MITCHELL
NESS NORTON OSBORNE
PAWNEE PHILLIPS PRATT
RICE ROOKS RUSH
RUSSELL SEWARD SHERIDAN
SMITH STAFFORD TREGO
NEC001-019-047-061-065-073-079-083-099-137-181-160440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0112 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 112
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/16/24
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 112
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-017-031-041-047-063-071-073-075-091-103-111-113-115-
117-149-161-163-171-175-160440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER DAWSON
FRONTIER GARFIELD GOSPER
GRANT HOOKER KEYA PAHA
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN
SHERMAN THOMAS VALLEY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0111 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 111
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE CDR
TO 20 W RAP TO 25 NW 9V9.
PARTS OF REMAING VALID PORTION OF WATCH NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER
MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED AN HOUR.
..KERR..04/16/24
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 111
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC007-033-047-071-075-085-095-102-103-121-123-160400-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER
JACKSON JONES LYMAN
MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
TODD TRIPP
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 110 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0110 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 110
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW SJT
TO 35 ESE LBB.
..LYONS..04/16/24
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 110
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC033-055-057-065-075-141-160140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTON GREER HARMON
JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN
TXC009-023-059-075-077-081-101-125-151-155-197-207-235-253-263-
269-275-335-353-399-415-417-429-431-433-441-447-451-485-487-503-
160140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CALLAHAN
CHILDRESS CLAY COKE
COTTLE DICKENS FISHER
FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL
IRION JONES KENT
KING KNOX MITCHELL
NOLAN RUNNELS SCURRY
SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING
STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 109 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0109 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 109
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PKB TO
30 SW EKN TO 25 NNE LYH TO 20 ESE RIC TO 35 NNE ORF TO 45 SSE WAL.
..LYONS..04/16/24
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RNK...RLX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 109
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
VAC005-007-021-025-035-037-045-053-063-067-071-077-081-083-089-
093-095-111-117-121-131-135-141-143-147-149-155-161-173-175-181-
183-185-197-199-550-570-590-595-620-640-650-670-690-700-710-730-
735-740-750-770-775-800-810-830-160140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHANY AMELIA BLAND
BRUNSWICK CARROLL CHARLOTTE
CRAIG DINWIDDIE FLOYD
FRANKLIN GILES GRAYSON
GREENSVILLE HALIFAX HENRY
ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY LUNENBURG
MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON
NOTTOWAY PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA
PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE PULASKI
ROANOKE SMYTH SOUTHAMPTON
SURRY SUSSEX TAZEWELL
WYTHE YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS DANVILLE
READ MORE
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SPC MD 450
MD 0450 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AMD
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0907 PM CDT MON APR 15 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEBRASKA AMD ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 160207Z - 160430Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN GENERALLY WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ONGOING. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY, THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER STILL APPEARS LIMITED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF A SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, A DEVELOPING AREA OF MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS
BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN KANSAS/EASTERN NEBRASKA
VICINITY OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY. BASED ON RADAR, AND THE
16/00Z SOUNDING FROM TOPEKA, ASSOCIATED LIFT AND MOISTENING ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF AN ONGOING INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, WHICH IS ROOTED ABOVE THE INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH A PROMINENT ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER.
BELOW THE CAPPING INVERSION, BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING, WITHIN A
CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. AND, IN THE PRESENCE OF
SIZABLE CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR, THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR
BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, UNTIL THE LEADING EDGE OF
MID-LEVEL COOLING APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT, THE BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY
AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN UNREALIZED.
..KERR/THOMPSON.. 04/16/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41929840 41409626 39859488 39369553 40009737 40399786
41679892 41929840
READ MORE
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SPC APR 16, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT MON APR 15 2024
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENH RISK OVER THE PLAINS...AND ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT. SEVERAL TORNADOES, PERHAPS STRONG, LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SEVERE GUSTS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
...01Z UPDATE...
EARLY-EVENING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MOISTENING AT MIDLEVELS
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NE/WESTERN KS INTO THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE.
THIS IS LIKELY THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THAT IS
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO,
BOUNDARY-LAYER CU HAVE GRADUALLY DEEPENED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
LIGHTNING MAY SOON DEVELOP WITH STRENGTHENING UPDRAFTS. SUPERCELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SOON AND SUBSEQUENT
MOVEMENT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS ANTICIPATED, IN LINE
WITH 20Z OUTLOOK. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY FAVOR VERY LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS, STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO DRY ADIABATIC SURFACE-3KM LAPSE RATES. 00Z SOUNDING
FROM MAF SUPPORTS THIS AND SURFACE-6KM BULK SHEAR IS ALSO AROUND
60KT. EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVED OVER NORTHWEST TX
HAS STRUGGLED TO ORGANIZE, BUT AGITATED BOUNDARY-LAYER CU MIGHT
ORGANIZE ALONG THE DRYLINE BETWEEN LBB-ABI. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT COULD ENCOURAGE UPSCALE GROWTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY HAS YET
TO BE OVERTURNED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA, IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
CONVECTION THAT IS SAGGING INTO THIS REGION. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
GSO/MHX DO NOT EXHIBIT APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY WITH SEASONALLY LOW PWS
FARTHER SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH SOME RISK FOR HAIL, CONTINUES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONVECTION HAS IT SETTLES SOUTH TOWARD
THE VA/NC BORDER. OTHERWISE, OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE
GRADUALLY LOWERING.
..DARROW.. 04/16/2024
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